
This year's bumper harvests sound like good news for Russia: After decades of being forced to import grain, Russia is now turning its eyes to markets where it may sell its extra reserves.
But record harvests leave the country's grain traders with two major problems: how to find buyers, and how to deliver the product to them.
The export issue is gaining urgency. With sliding grain prices on the domestic market, Russia has to export at least 5-6 million tons of grain this year, experts say. If it doesn't, farmers will sow less grain next year, and soon Russia will find itself relying on imports once again.
After more than a 30-year pause, Russia began exporting grain again last year. The flow of grain from Russia and Ukraine took European markets by surprise.
Since spring 2002, the European Commission has twice raised duties on grain imports from Eastern Europe, and now it is discussing introducing quotas for exporters. If that happens, and these quotas are based on the amount of grain each EU country traditionally imported, Russian grain will find the doors to Europe closed this autumn, though flooding that destroyed some of the European harvest may change the situation.
Europe isn't the only prospective market for Russian grain: Arab and North African markets are being considered as valuable and accessible markets. In the southern hemisphere, the economic crisis in Argentina has freed up part of Brazil's market, and Russia could try filling the gap. The head of Partrade, Brazil's largest grain trading company, visited Moscow at the beginning of August for business talks.
"If we get the logistics chain right, there's a very real chance of selling grain to Brazil," said Arkady Zlochevsky, the head of the Agriculture Ministry's federal agricultural market regulation commission.
"But even more attractive for our exporters are the Asian and North African markets. Saudi Arabia, for example, imports barley, including from Russia. Egypt also imports a lot of grain. The problem is that these markets have already taken shape, and it's usually multinational corporations that win the big tenders. So we're going to have to make a lot of effort to get a foothold in these markets."
But even if Russia finds the buyers, it still has to figure out how to get the grain to them. Russia's attempts to export grain last year revealed its lack of transport infrastructure, both in railways and in ports. Changes to internal rail freight tariffs have added more complications by increasing the freight moving into Russian ports.
Russia only has one deep-water port capable of taking the kinds of ships used to transport oil or grain Novorossiisk. Most major grain traders have their own port facilities, but this is not the case in Russia.
Last year, some grain was exported through shallow-water ports by loading it onto ships from trucks or freight wagons, rather than from grain silos as at Novorossiisk. This practice will probably remain popular this year.
The St. Petersburg port administration says no grain has come through the port since spring, but other sources say grain is being loaded onto small ships in the port. Oleg Terekhov, the president of the Association of Sea Ports, said the logistics can be sorted out, and that the main focus is finding export markets.
But warning bells have started ringing. Railways to the south are already overloaded, and early in August railway officials were even obliged to halt all rail traffic for a period to free up the lines. This was followed by devastating floods around Novorossiisk.
There is also a shortage of grain wagons. Over the summer, many wagons used to transport grain were used for cement instead, leaving them unusable for grain.
Both the state and big business are now working on plans to improve transport infrastructure, but improvements will be too late for this year's grain harvest. Agriculture officials and businesses are also lobbying for reduced freight tariffs for moving grain to ports in neighboring countries.
Whether that lobbying is successful or not, many grain exporters are still likely to use nearby foreign ports such as Odessa, Ilichevsk or Muugu, as the drop in grain prices still allows them to make a profit.
"I have information that some traders are already building up stocks to send through Muugu," said Andrei Sizov, an analyst at the Sovekon center.
"Of the two challenges exporters face, logistics is the bigger priority. Given the current price situation, the most likely outcome is that grain will go out through Ukrainian and Baltic ports."