Analysts close to the Kremlin made no secret of their satisfaction upon learning the names of the new U.S. president’s foreign policy and security team. Secretary of State Colin Powell, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice all have worldviews forged during the Cold War.

Moscow sees these politicians as primarily concerned with global defense issues – one area where Russia still manages to maintain a high status. The hope is that the new Washington team will treat Russia as an equal and that the two sides will sit down at the "great chess board" like in the good old days, and make a few exchanges – Russia installs separating warheads on its Topol-M missiles while the United States gets to extend its missile defense system.

With Washington still assembling its team, it’s the perfect moment for Russia to put its best strategy together on the board. This explains why Russia has announced its intentions to sell arms to Iran and why President Vladimir Putin visited Cuba – both clear signs of support for countries that worry Washington. At the same time, the Russian armed forces held maneuvers with strategic bombers close to U.S. borders and Russian fighter planes simulated an attack on the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk.

But in their eagerness to put the past back on the agenda with Washington, Russian strategists are forgetting that the members of George W. Bush’s team see themselves as the victors in the Cold War and intend to turn this to maximum advantage. Bush hasn’t even officially taken office yet, and his team is already conducting aggressive reconnaissance.

A sensational article appeared in the Washington Times early this month, citing intelligence sources saying that Moscow had deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad Oblast. The article was written in such a way as to be easily disproved.

For starters, equipping 70-100 km-range missiles with nuclear warheads makes no sense in this region as there are no important military sites within range. What’s more, all tactical nuclear weapons were withdrawn from Russian military units over a year ago and put into storage.

Given the lamentable state of the armed forces at present, it’s unlikely that Army commanders would order the risky operation of getting the warheads returned. Finally, the article misnamed the type of missile involved, calling it "Toka" – in reality it is called Tochka.

But despite these holes, anonymous representatives in the Pentagon confirmed that deployment of nuclear weapons had taken place. Poland and the Baltic states began to call for immediate inspections in Kaliningrad Oblast. This meant that despite the absurdity of the accusations, Moscow couldn’t just brush them aside, and found itself having to issue an official denial at the highest level. Statements by the Baltic Fleet command and even the Defense Ministry weren’t enough; denial had to come from the president himself.

This was what the Americans wanted. From a legal point of view, the agreements signed by Mikhail Gorbachev and George Bush Senior on withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons from Europe carry no more weight than the agreements between Al Gore and Viktor Chernomyrdin on not supplying arms to Iran.

Moscow has already pulled out of the agreement banning arms sales to Iran and Russian diplomats have repeated that if the United States deploys a national missile defense system, Russia will consider itself free of its nuclear weapons commitments. Russian officials have indicated in the past that a possible response to U.S. missile defense plans could be to deploy tactical nuclear weapons close to the borders of America’s European allies.

It is now clear that the Bush administration sees deployment of a national missile defense system as one of its main priorities. But to make a decision, Bush needs to work out just how far Moscow is willing to go to oppose the United States. By raising in the press the specter of Russian nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, Washington has forced Moscow to vigorously deny plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, while avoiding any direct confrontation with the Kremlin.

Were Putin now to respond to U.S. national missile defense plans by deploying nuclear weapons in Europe, he would appear to be violating his own promises, not only to the United States, but also to the western European countries with which he is trying hard to build up good relations.

All of this only goes to show just how much more experienced Bush’s people are at playing the games Moscow has been dreaming of. The article in the Washington Times is a clear lesson in this respect.