When outstanding military theorist Karl von Clausewitz wrote that war is the continuation of politics by other means, he obviously had foreign policy in mind. But two centuries later, military reform could become the deciding factor in setting the domestic policy that Russia will follow in the decades to come.

A couple of weeks ago, the military establishment looked to have convinced President Vladimir Putin yet again that there's no need for any radical reform of the military. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has named re-arming the military as his top priority. After meeting with Putin, Ivanov said the first task was to modernize the Space Forces, then the Air Force and the Ground Forces.

Ivanov didn't hide his skepticism regarding reform. "You can't reform endlessly; it's impossible both psychologically and practically," he said. Instead, Ivanov said the military needed to be left in quiet for a while. More than anything, Ivanov looks like a doctor who has been called to the bedside of a seriously ill patient and recommends that intensive treatment is better avoided. Doctors do sometimes give such advice, but only when they think the case is hopeless.

Addressing the key military reform issue – the move to a professional Army – Ivanov noted with satisfaction that Putin has given his overall approval to the military's plans, which foresee abandoning conscription by 2010. In effect, this amounts to giving up on the whole idea of a professional Army because none of today's military authorities will be responsible for its results, so they could just as easily plan the second coming of Christ for 2010.

Commenting on the call-up campaign this year, Col. Gen. Vladislav Putilin, the first deputy chief of General Staff, told journalists there would be no changes. As in previous years, local draft offices would round up prospective conscripts, tracking them down with the help of the police, a practice Putilin considers perfectly legal.

Putilin agreed with the forecasts that the population decline in Russia will soon mean a real shortfall of young conscript-age men, adding that from 2006, the number of young men registered by the military authorities is expected to fall rapidly. If nothing is done, the Armed Forces and security ministries and agencies will find themselves with only 49-53 percent of the men they need.

The military authorities plan to tackle this problem decisively by abolishing draft deferrals. A sign of this came when Ivanov chastised university military departments and promised to do away with most of them. Ivanov is right when he says that most of the students who go through these military departments can hardly be called officers. But it is precisely this status of reserve officer that allows students to avoid being called up for military service.

Ivanov could get rid of the university military departments without repealing the law authorizing the draft deferrals. But the result would be that higher-education graduates would find themselves sent straight off to the Army. The Defense Ministry plan could have gone ahead unhindered had politics not gotten in the way.

Ivanov makes no secret of his dislike for politicians who say it's possible to change over to a professional Army within a year or two, dismissing their statements as "nonsense, the beginning of an election campaign." And Ivanov has specific politicians in mind, too.

One of them is SPS (Union of Right Forces) leader Boris Nemtsov, who insists that it would take only a year to phase out conscription. SPS commissioned experts from the Academy of Military Sciences and Yegor Gaidar's Transition Economy Institute to draw up a plan for a rapid move to a professional Army. The plan calls for the Armed Forces to be cut back to 600,000-700,000 servicemen and a 30 billion ruble increase to the defense budget. At the same time, another 200,000 people called up for military service of six to eight months would undergo training at special Defense Ministry training centers and wouldn't be sent to hot spots such as Chechnya.

The SPS plan impressed Putin when it was presented to him last autumn. It took the military authorities six months to persuade Putin that the plan wouldn't work. But Nemtsov doesn't intend to give up the fight. Last week he organized a meeting in the center of Moscow to demand immediate military reform. Similar meetings will be held in another 50 Russian cities.

Anyone present at the Moscow meeting would have realized that, if Nemtsov argues his case right, the authorities won't be able to ignore his demands. SPS has an opportunity to win the support of the huge Russian electorate made up of middle-aged women. These women, mothers, will vote for whoever can free them for good from the fear that their sons will die or be injured during their military service. If SPS' popularity ratings rise and military reform becomes a fundamental issue when setting the next election campaign strategy, the Defense Ministry won't find it so easy to sabotage the transition to a professional Army.